VR wont be the new compute platform - AR will dominate
VR wont be the new compute platform - AR will dominate
Not quite sure how else to say this.. the media (and therefore the public) still seems to confuse VR as the ‘Metaverse’ and mistakenly thinks its going to be the new compute platform to dominate.
As a result we have lots of clients asking us to do ‘Metaverse’ and thinking they therefore need to do VR.
The Metaverse is not just VR. My definition of the Metaverse is that it is a continuous, digital overlay on the real world or an immersive three dimensional environment that a user engages in as an Avatar or from a first person point of view.
This means the Metaverse encompasses Augmented Reality, Mixed Reality and Virtual Reality. It can be accessed through a desktop, laptop, mobile, smart glasses or VR headsets and includes first person gaming environments and mobile 3D retail environments.
The vast majority of time spent in the MV is on desktops, but it will move to mobile and then Smart glasses - as the technology improves. The majority of the big ‘gaming’ style worlds such as Decentraland and Sandbox are entered through desktops, but these are only flavour of the month. There are also multiple business friendly environments such as W3rlds that are built for and accessed by mobile and these are the kind of ‘Metaverse’ platforms that business wil use to display and sell their products and services.
There are some notable VR exceptions such as Somnium space (which is incredible) but putting on a headset is just not something humans will want to do 8 hours a day. Virtual Reality will always be the least popular way to access the Metaverse.
Having a desktop open to Decentraland for many hours a day while working, or dipping into Mobile retail apps - well that’s completely different story, and putting on smartglasses - eyewear with AR overlays - that’s the future..
The way the MV is consumed isn’t as an all out immersive experience, its more like the radio, you listen and watch on a second screen and then ‘turn it up’ when something your interested in comes on, or you activate it on your phone or by putting on eyewear (eventually).
You might take a little time to go into VR, but that’s the exception, not the rule.
Zuckerberg has pitched the Metaverse as Virtual Reality - he knows it isn’t and he is making many other products to access the Metaverse beyond Horizons and VR headsets. I think he’s only saying this to get a first mover advantage and so the Media conflagrate the two.
This can be a problem for brands as the thnk they need to get into and build worlds in VR. VR is expensive, the audience isnt huge and you don’t need it to get the immersive functionality fo the metaverse - most brads are better off making Mobile Immersive platforms or integrating with ganmes and gaming engines.
The platforms that will win and dominate and those that won’t..
So here’s my view:
1) Niantic: They will be the new Facebook. Their AR ‘Lightship’ SDK enables users to make overlay worlds that are epic, the version of ‘Mixed reality’ where you can wear see through glasss that overlay digital assets onto it will win. But we are years off of the tech being good enough to use daily, but Niantic are getting there.
2) Nvidia - they make the chips and ‘mirror worlds’ these will be used daily as well - so they are in pole position.
3) Web 3.0 integrated worlds like Decentraland that you access mainly though desktops and ‘dip into’ in VR and will ebentually move to mobile: Decentraland is like an advanced social media gaming engine, easy to build worlds in, loads of functionality.
We are years away from truly scaling Web 3.0 worlds.
However, we wont scale until AR smartglasses are ubiquitous and compute power increases / lens tech improves, but its the direction of travel. And I don’t think that Metaverse worlds will be all ‘ web3’ , they will be a combination of web2 and web3, using blockchain tech to help with things like loyalty, trading, security , identification etc - they will be blend of techs.
Its a bit like we are in 2010 (maybe 2012) and instagram has been around for two years. But get in on the ground floor now and start to understand how AR and mixed reality and 3D objects & the Metaverse works, and how as a brand you can have an incredible one on one consumer / brand relation and you will be well placed for a profitable future.